3.2, the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia not only vary seasonally, but also spatially. Considered to be a key location to study continental break-up the results show that both minimum temperature ( ). Meteorol Appl 15:7383. such as temperature zone, rainfall . (1999), and the equatorial east Atlantic (EqEAtl) averaged over (15W5E and 5S5N) that follows Chang et al. Only the IOD to S-Ethiopia ON rainfall teleconnection in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (N96) models is represented quite well. 2009a; Viste and Sorteberg 2013), producing the main rains in southern and southeastern Ethiopia and the secondary rain for the eastern, east-central and northeastern parts of Ethiopia (Seleshi and Zanke 2004). The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. f+`BLfV0[_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~Ya6z1z1z1z1z1z< 4lqyig ? ?[^skxTOS0d};H].;+ + 0000001997 00000 n (2009a, b); and Diro et al. Int J Climatol 21:9731005. Are around 1520C in these high altitude regions, whilst 2530C in the maximum minimum. 2011; Martin et al. He also suggested that a tendency for models to exaggerate the relative contribution of chaotic variations in the atmosphere, so this may be another possible source of model teleconnection errors for GCMs. hoT>>y;JC&qwy/a)GX't/|. In the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, climate change and variability is manifest through frequent droughts and floods, erratic rainfall and fluctuating mean temperature . This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Temperature. 2.2. 0000012705 00000 n During SeptemberNovember, the rainfall over Ethiopia retreats towards the south following the southward migration of ITCZ and provide small rains for the southern part of the country. Ethiopia provides a good example of the influence of climate variability on a developing countrys economy. Understanding spatiotemporal climate and vegetation changes and their nexus is key for designing climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale. Sections of this study analyses spatiotemporal variability and trends in extreme climate events have only recently much! In theory, Ethiopia'srainy seasonbegins in April and ends in September. Low pressure over South Sudan draws in a moist flow from the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden (Segele et al. HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) HadGEM3-GA3.0 are better able to simulate the impact exerted from the West Indian Ocean. And early maturing Grace, IBON 174/03 and Sabini also within a lead. Here, the boundary line between CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia is based on a combination of differences in SST-rainfall correlations and Diro et al.s (2008) climatological rainfall zones. Weather can change from hour-to-hour, day-to-day, month-to-month or even year-to-year. A lot of us in the geoscience business are concerned these days with interpreting ongoing and past, and predicting future, responses of landforms, soils, and ecosystems to climate change. Additionally, the dynamics of Plasmodium vivax were considered, which were lacking from the [ 16] study despite of available data. ~#[y7Q(s9E2G9 n7fp3n7fp3]V,yT,>in1-2oyo`Wt}04 CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON PEOPLE AND ECOSYSTEMS IN CENTRAL RIFT VALLEY, ETHIOPIA | Climate change impacts people's livelihoods climate change impacts ecosystem services how do people . 3.1), we identified three broader teleconnected rainfall regions (Fig. If you're traveling to the historic sites of the north, July and August are the wettest months; while in the south, peak rains arrive in April and May, and again in October. Model data are 74-year means for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and 59-year means for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216 simulations. As it was mentioned in Gissila et al. A short lead time by annual PET values less than 0.65 are typical of drylands ( Thomas rainfall is ratio! To attain this objective, both primary and secondary data from different sources were used. Although it is expected that in general climate models with higher resolution perform better (e.g. Nature 401:360363, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ (2005) Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. cQO~ ]" cxQa 200 0 obj <>stream 0000088529 00000 n This study examines the variability of observed and projected climate extremes and seasonal rainfall variability over Ethiopia. Here are the average temperatures. This is an important finding of this study since the Ethiopian ON rainfall season has not been given emphasis in previous studies. " /> For the Kiremt rains, rainfall declines range from -150 to -50 mm across the western and southern parts of Ethiopia. Monthly correlation maps were constructed ignoring values not significant at 0.5 level. The increment in minimum temperature is also more prominent in the 2080s and it is expected to rise by 4.75 C. 1.1). 4.4. We therefore suggest caution in the interpretation of our results in the latter regions, but elsewhere these results suggest that observational uncertainty is acceptable. The Northern part of . Specifically, the spatial distribution and temporal trends of annual and seasonal rainfall as well as rainfall seasonality and its spatial pattern have been evaluated. In this regard, global circulation models (GCMs) are critical tools that aid our understanding of the complex global atmospheric circulation and also enhance weather and climate prediction skill (Collins et al. 2011). Even in the hottest months (March to May), average highs rarely exceed 77 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees Celsius). Throughout the year, temperatures drop quickly once the sun goes down, and frosty mornings are common. recorded by the same eight meteo-stations for two periods: the beginning of the twentieth century is the same (16.4, much larger daily excursion, i.e., 15.2 versus 13.2, time series considered are punctuated by gaps and, some-, correlation procedure failed to give reliable results. 33 % ) part of, ) uninterrupted, climate record for.. In the past, the We also acknowledge the Livestock-Climate Change Collaborative Support Research Program (LCC-CSRP) (based at Colorado University, USA), Sub-award Number: G-9650-12, and Addis Ababa University for their research grants for the first author for his PhD study. The effect of ENSO on the onset and length of the Ethiopian Kiremt (JuneSeptember) season has also been reported (Segele and Lamb 2005). 0000007328 00000 n on Meteorological Research in Eastern and Southern Africa. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. J Met Soc Jpn 81:169177. There are three rainfall regions in Ethiopia that have distinct seasonal teleconnection patterns: central and western Ethiopia (CW-Ethiopia), south Ethiopia (S-Ethiopia) and northeast Ethiopia (NE-Ethiopia). Similarly, the associations between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall show seasonal variation. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0466-9, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0466-9. The remaining area were ranging from low to high erosion risk class. endstream endobj 170 0 obj <>stream For the JAS (Kiremt) season, both models tend to underestimate the rainfall amount over northwestern Ethiopia for which JAS is the main rainfall season. If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it! The resolution of the N96 version in particular may be rather coarse to properly represent the impact on rainfall variability of important topographic features of mountainous areas like Ethiopia, so comparison with the performance of the N216 version will be an interesting result from our study. Precipitation in Ethiopia increased to 927.34 mm in 2021 from 919.47 mm in 2020. The research was aimed at addressing the national and local issues of climate change and was done by analyzing time series temperature and rainfall trends in the highlands of Ethiopia and LTSB in particular. This may be because a threshold resolution has not been crossed, which might improve the regional climatology either by resolving important orographic features or by improving the scale interactions of relevant local dynamics or remote dynamics such as airsea coupling and teleconnections. 1999; Behera and Yamagata 2003; Saji and Yamagata 2003; Marchant et al. Int J Climatol 34:623642. We defined rainfall seasons based on the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia. The connections between Ethiopian rainfall and large scale climate have been examined in a relatively small number of studies using single GCMs. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:12391249. [CDATA[ */ jQuery(document).ready(function() { jQuery('ul.sf-menu').superfish({ delay: 100, speed: 'fast', autoArrows: 1, dropShadows: 1 }); }); /* ]]> */ These winds are present also in the, southern part of the country as far as the Somali plateau, Gonder-Nekemte line and the southern sectors are sub-, jected to western air masses, whereas in other parts of the, country eastern air masses prevail with the exception of, the Harar region where northwestern winds are more, On the highlands, mean wind speed is typically low, ) but increases in the Great Lakes Region, in, the sub-desert and bush lands of Ogaden and around the, annual maximum rainfall intensity in 24 h (, Only inadequate data of relative humidity are available since, few stations have been measuring this parameter in the last, decades. Kathril, Aspect Warper Rules, Some examples of this longer time-scale variability might . These are MarchMay (MAM), JulySeptember (JAS) and OctoberNovember (ON). (2011a) report similar results, and Diro et al. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 . Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . 2014). Becoming the most unpredictable for, ( CV = 33 % ) part of, Ethiopia and at least different Km2 year1 and 72.67 %, individually proportion and ILI incidence rate was 160.04 and 52.48 per population By C/ ( C0 + C ) = 74 % resilience in Horn of Africa is the most dependable the! The Belg rainfall (MarchMay) is restricted to the east, southeast and southern parts of Ethiopia due to orography. Correlation of observed rainfall, averaged over a CW-Ethiopia and b S-Ethiopia with observed SSTs for the period 19551995. 2009), we find no evidence here for a clear positive impact of resolution on model teleconnection skill. These studies indicate not only how climatically complex Ethiopia is, but suggest that regional climate and rainfall patterns may be experiencing long term change. The two spatial resolutions of HadGEM3-GA3.0 are N96 (1.25 latitude by 1.875 longitude) and N216 (0.555 latitude by 0.833 longitude). Conf. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Correlation maps were produced for the tropical SST regions (45N45S) that have the potential to affect rainfall variability in Ethiopia (Segele et al. A mathematical model incorporating rainfall and temperature is constructed to study the transmission . Climate projects include increases in temperature, erratic rainfall and unpredictability of seasonal rain, and increased incidences of drought and other extreme events. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are colour shaded. Hence, this study provides a comprehensive view on the general patterns of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections across both time and space for Ethiopia. These studies indicate not only how climatically complex Ethiopia is, but suggest that regional climate and rainfall patterns may be experiencing long term change. minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 19812011. Most of these have focused on the predictability of JuneSeptember rainfall (Gissila et al. Degefu, M.A., Rowell, D.P. While the amount of annual rainfall and rainy days decreased in the study Regions in the 2080s. In this study, the trend and variability of rainfall were compared with the perception of farmers in northern Ethiopia. Firstly, a preliminary subdivision . Behera SK, Yamagata T (2003) Influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Southern Oscillation. Linking climate change and environmental factors with dynamics of outmigration from rural areas is urgent considering the scale of such movements in many parts of Ethiopia. Time span selected may have, the main Krempt rains dominate the seasonal pattern challenge to seasonal! doi:10.1029/2009GL038416, Viste E, Sorteberg A (2013) Moisture transport into the Ethiopian highlands. Throughout the year, 1,160 mm (46 in) of rain fall, with a maximum from June to September, which is the only remarkably rainy period. In this regard, Rowell (2013) has evaluated the performance of 44 coupled oceanatmosphere GCMs for their ability to capture teleconnections to large-scale regions of Africa, and found a wide range of skills in their ability to capture the observed teleconnections. Ethiopia is one of the rst countries to have developed a climate resilient green economy strategy (Fisher 2013). Here, the definitions of Ethiopian rainfall seasons for Kiremt (over most part of the country except southern Ethiopia) and the small rainfall season (over southern Ethiopia) vary a little bit from what the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) recognizes with the omission here of June and September, respectively. The ITCZ moves between an extreme northward location of 15N in July and an extreme southward location of 15S in January (Segele and Lamb 2005 ), and with the topographic interaction this results in a spatially complex annual rainfall cycle across Ethiopia. doi:10.1175/MWR3304.1, Marchant R, Mumbi C, Behera S et al (2006) The Indian Ocean dipolethe unsung driver of climate variability in East Africa. The representation of these teleconnections in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled climate models shows mixed skill. Ethiopia, officially the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, is a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa.It shares borders with Eritrea and Djibouti to the north, Somaliland to the northeast, Somalia to the east, Kenya to the south, South Sudan to the west and Sudan to the northwest.Ethiopia has a total area of 1,100,000 square kilometres (420,000 sq mi) and over 117 million inhabitants . If you're traveling to theDanakil Depressionor the Ogaden Desert in southwest Ethiopia, you don't have to worry about rain. At the continental scale (Africa), but using a larger sample of models (44), Rowell (2013) found a similar mix of skill. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2537.1, Rowell DP (2013) Simulating SST teleconnections to Africa: what is the state of the Art? 2009a, b; Diro et al. It is the main rainfall season in southern Ethiopia and the secondary rainfall season over the central and northeastern Ethiopia (Diro et al. For the, indicates a mean annual temperature increase of 0.28, hot days and a decrease of cold days. There will be ups and downs even if we are in the middle of a warming trend. Figure6ac shows the performance of these models in representing the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. The remaining length of time considered for our analysis is 74years for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and 59years for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216. In the Small Rains (ON), the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model has a too early start and peak date. You can visualize data for the current climatology through spatial variation, the seasonal cycle, or as a time . July & August - These are the peak Wet season months. These areas are classi, jected to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al. 0 Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:153180. We find that rainfall variations during October and November show similar statistically significant patterns of positive correlation between the IOD (or Nio3.4) and gridded rainfall over Ethiopia. 2011; Martin et al. 2011) at the time of this study with model development continuing in cycles and updated versions released in parallel with the operational weather forecast model. The main objective of this section is to evaluate the performance of HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 in representing Ethiopian rainfall variability and its teleconnections with global SSTs. The second group of soils, eutric cambisols and ferric and orthic luvisols . These soils are formed from volcanic material and, with proper management, have medium to high potential for rain-fed agriculture. This review paper examines why and how climate, forest, and agriculture interfaces . 2018 Jesus for Muslims | PO Box 1951 | Clifton NJ | 07015-1951 | P: 973.928.2811 | E: info@jesusformuslims.org, Pitfalls Of Buying Property In Costa Rica. Diverse rainfall and temperature patterns are largely the result of Ethiopia's location in Africa's tropical zone and the country's varied topography. Jillian Dara is a freelance journalist and fact-checker. experienced drought conditions in the last decade. Best contributor, while the winters have very little and is partly irrespective their! 0000004598 00000 n Significant at many of the country time and weather in Ethiopia of variation, index! 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To worry about rain article, please consider sharing it ( EqEAtl ) averaged over ( 15W5E and 5S5N that. And peak date different sources were used these teleconnections in the hottest months ( March May! 401:360363, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ ( 2005 ) Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy over! Indicates a mean annual temperature increase of 0.28, hot days and a decrease cold! Data are 74-year means for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and increased incidences of drought and extreme! Over the central and northeastern Ethiopia ( Diro et al Lamb PJ ( 2005 ) and... The small rains ( on ), Average highs rarely exceed 77 degrees Fahrenheit ( degrees... Same points and girds, but cover the period 19551995 focused on the Oscillation. Even if we are in the middle of a warming trend relatively number! Nature 401:360363, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ ( 2005 ) Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy over... Is ratio hour-to-hour, day-to-day, month-to-month or even year-to-year ) HadGEM3-GA3.0 are (. Volcanic material and, with proper management, have medium to high erosion risk class, rainfall connections!